If the rising oil prices have been baffling people across, including Indians who own a property to sell, I would call it divine vengeance on my behalf.
Half a crore has become the basic asking price for a decent accommodation. ‘Decent’ has its limitations. It may not take into account basics such electricity, water, security, vicinity to school, hospital, grocers, etc. (But surely a great mall would be close by. And an International airport by 2020 though I wonder what I would do with the airport on a daily basis!)
Anyways, this write-up is about oil prices. So lets put that into perspective. The revelations that I am going to share here are not mine frankly. They’ve been inspired by an article in rediff. It kind of explains the reason behind the unprecedented rise in crude oil price at a global level. I’ll try and do that in even more simpler language for everyone’s benefit.
One word – Futures trading is responsible for it (it couldn’t have been expressed in a simpler manner :)
The fact of the matter is that supply of crude oil has not been a problem. Infact, Saudi Arabia has even offered to ramp up the production. That hasn’t helped the price surge. Demand is not the major problem. It has increased to some extent but not to an extent to push prices at the level they are.
So where lies the bug that’s rocketing crude oil prices?
It lies with the over optimistic expectations of people from the future. Speculators! They make the stock market rise, they make the property market rise, they are making the oil prices rise. Reminds me of the saying, ‘The future is so bright it burns my eyes.’
My understanding is that a lot of people are not buying property because they need it but because they expect it to give them a fantastic return. Best form of investment. Which is why, even if the property has no basic amenities, it will still carry an illogical price tag. Expectations from the future. Speculation.
Had the demand for housing been real, wouldn’t rentals have gone up the same way. I pay Rs.10,000 for a house that will cost me Rs.70 lacs were I to buy it.
OPEC no longer controls oil prices (though they’ve been profiting from it). Today’s oil prices are goverened by speculators trading in New York & London in US dollars. The futures trading determines the spot prices for oil. Let me illustrate with an example:
Suppose the market determines that price of oil will be $250 in 2011 basis trading of futures and derivatives. Now, they will use the time value of money and discount this $250 to today’s value. This value will then determine today’s spot price. So if oil will cost $250 in 2011, it ought to cost $140 in 2008. That ways!
And I read somewhere that these markets do not have governing bodies like we have SEBI for stock exchange which is why governments are no longer in control of oil prices, unless they decide to step up and tamper with 'free market' fundamental.
Markets seem like an an emotional game. Look at the stock market for example. Many a famous scrips have prices that just cannot be justified basis dividend earning capacity. Even if you were to rake in the expected dividends for the next 30 years and add it to the face value of the share, the market value will still outstrip this amount.
But I have a very limited understanding of the financial and property markets and the way they work. Would be great if someone can throw more light on these issues.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Post Mortem Ananlysis (PMA)
I wanted to do a Post Mortem of a recently concluded project - a Fraud Detection Rule Engine on Naukri India. It was the most screwed piece of project management ever. But I did know how a professional Post Mortem Analysis (PMA) should be carried out. It could cause more harm than good. While researching on the net, i came across a line regarding PMA - "Do It Right Or Don't Do It At All".
Well, this prompted me to put together a document. Most of this doc are not my own words but a collation of points from various sources so as to make it relevant to our industry. Check it out:
Conducting Post Mortem Analysis of a Project (PMA)
(also referred to as Post Implementation Review)
Overview
The current paper on Post Mortem Analysis (PMA) of a Project covers the following:
1. Why Post Mortem is essential?
2. When should a Post Mortem be done?
3. How to ensure Post Mortem as a process?
4. How to conduct a Post Mortem?
5. What to extract from a Post Mortem exercise?
Why Post Mortem is essential?
All of us are very hard pressed for time. One project gets over and the next one is in pipeline. And days are planned accordingly so any effort in a Post Mortem exercise for a project that has already gone live seems such a waste of time!
“Its going to affect my pipeline.”
“There are too many meetings happening for the projects in hand. I can’t squeeze in meetings for a project thats already live and kicking fine!”
“Look ahead, no point digging out graves!”
However, the difference between an organization with a culture of postmortems and one without can be dramatic. Because of the good effects of postmortems, companies that lack the discipline to perform postmortems tend to be at a rather chaotic level of development.
Companies that do not conduct some form of postmortem are doomed to repeat the same mistakes. This statement holds true for individuals and teams.
It's important for Product Managers and team members to take stock at the end of a project and develop a list of lessons learned so that they don't repeat their mistakes in the next project.
When should a Post Mortem be done?
The best time to conduct a postmortem is about two weeks after a product is released. This allows you to regain your objectivity without forgetting the details. Your memories will still be fresh, and you'll have a good perspective to see the project as a whole rather than focusing too strongly on the most recent work.
However, this timeline can vary but the basic idea is that it should not be too close to the release nor too far away from it. Ideally, anything from one week to a maximum three weeks.
Launch the product, have the celebration, and then roll right into the postmortem, within one to three weeks rather than waiting for a convenient break in the action (which never comes, anyhow).
How to ensure Post Mortem as a process?
Effective use of postmortems can only happen when all stakeholders understand the benefits and management is supportive of this exercise.
In essence, an atmosphere needs to be built that promotes post mortems and all team members embrace it for betterment.
Plan for Postmortems - Your project plan should explicitly set aside time and space for the postmortem. To get the most value out of this activity, you need to take it seriously; people need to have time to think without being thrown immediately into the next project. The postmortem should be a scheduled activity, with time for a meeting of the team to discuss the lessons learned and time for someone (or some group) to write the postmortem report. People need to distance from the day-to-day workspace and see more clearly what they spend their regular workday doing.
How to conduct a Post Mortem (project post mortem, i.e.)?
Follow a two step process for conducting these reviews:
1. First, prepare and circulate a whole bunch of specific questions about the project and give team members time to think about them and prepare their responses individually.
Important: Involve all contributors.
2. Next, hold a meeting and discuss the team's responses to the questions. The result of this discussion is often a list of "Lessons Learned."
The benefit of the first step is that it allows the quieter, more analytical people to develop their responses to the questions without being interrupted by the more outgoing, vocal types who might otherwise dominate in the face-to-face meeting. Also, it allows everyone the time to create more thoughtful responses.
So what would be on the list of questions?
General Questions
1. Are you proud of our finished deliverables (project work products)? If yes, what's so good about them? If no, what's wrong with them?
2. What was the single most frustrating part of our project?
3. How would you do things differently next time to avoid this frustration?
4. What was the most gratifying or professionally satisfying part of the project?
5. Which of our methods or processes worked particularly well?
6. Which of our methods or processes were difficult or frustrating to use?
7. If you could wave a magic wand and change anything about the project, what would you change?
8. Did our stakeholders, senior managers, customers, and sponsor(s) participate effectively? If not, how could we improve their participation?
SPECIFIC QUESTIONS
Documentation Phase
1. Did our analysis identify all the project deliverables that we eventually had to build? If not, what did we miss and how can we be sure our future analyses don't miss such items?
2. Did our analysis identify unnecessary deliverables? If so, how can we be sure our future analyses don't make this mistake?
3. Did those who reviewed the SRS, provide timely and meaningful input? If not, how could we have improved their involvement and the quality of their contributions?
4. Did we have the right people assigned to all project roles? (Consider subject matter expertise, technical contributions, management, review and approval, and other key roles) If no, how can we make sure that we get the right people next time?
5. List team members or stakeholders who were missing from the kickoff meeting or who were not involved early enough in our project. How can we avoid these oversights in the future?
Development Phase
1. How accurate were our original estimates? What did we over or under estimate?
2. How could we have improved our estimate so that it was more accurate?
3. Were all team/stakeholder roles and responsibilities clearly delineated and communicated? If not, how could we have improved these?
4. Were the deliverables specifications, milestones, and specific schedule elements/dates clearly communicated? If not, how could we improve this?
5. Did the test facilities, equipment, materials, and support people help to make the test an accurate representation of how the deliverables will be used in the "real world?" If not, how could we have improved on these items?
What to extract from a Post Mortem exercise?
Here are a few suggestions to make PMA exercise fruitful:
1. Discuss what went wrong.
2. Discuss what went right
3. Document the postmortem in writing. A series of postmortems can ultimately evolve into a valuable record of your hard-earned wisdom.
4. Assess mid-project changes. What unanticipated changes occurred throughout the project? How did you respond to them? Did you incorporate some great mid-project additions, or was excessive feature creep a problem?
5. Draw meaningful conclusions. What conclusions can you draw from your project history that will help you improve in the future? What should you start doing, keep doing, or stop doing? Describe new practices you should try for your next project. This is perhaps the most important part of the postmortem, so be prepared to spend more time here than in any other section.
6. Take action. It would be a great waste of time to create a beautiful project postmortem, archive it, and forget about it. The final step is to develop an action plan that can be applied to your next project. Review your project history, reflect on the lessons you've learned, and specify new guidelines to follow in the future. I recommend creating a checklist for your next project. If you already have a checklist, then update it with new refinements.
Well, this prompted me to put together a document. Most of this doc are not my own words but a collation of points from various sources so as to make it relevant to our industry. Check it out:
Conducting Post Mortem Analysis of a Project (PMA)
(also referred to as Post Implementation Review)
Overview
The current paper on Post Mortem Analysis (PMA) of a Project covers the following:
1. Why Post Mortem is essential?
2. When should a Post Mortem be done?
3. How to ensure Post Mortem as a process?
4. How to conduct a Post Mortem?
5. What to extract from a Post Mortem exercise?
Why Post Mortem is essential?
All of us are very hard pressed for time. One project gets over and the next one is in pipeline. And days are planned accordingly so any effort in a Post Mortem exercise for a project that has already gone live seems such a waste of time!
“Its going to affect my pipeline.”
“There are too many meetings happening for the projects in hand. I can’t squeeze in meetings for a project thats already live and kicking fine!”
“Look ahead, no point digging out graves!”
However, the difference between an organization with a culture of postmortems and one without can be dramatic. Because of the good effects of postmortems, companies that lack the discipline to perform postmortems tend to be at a rather chaotic level of development.
Companies that do not conduct some form of postmortem are doomed to repeat the same mistakes. This statement holds true for individuals and teams.
It's important for Product Managers and team members to take stock at the end of a project and develop a list of lessons learned so that they don't repeat their mistakes in the next project.
When should a Post Mortem be done?
The best time to conduct a postmortem is about two weeks after a product is released. This allows you to regain your objectivity without forgetting the details. Your memories will still be fresh, and you'll have a good perspective to see the project as a whole rather than focusing too strongly on the most recent work.
However, this timeline can vary but the basic idea is that it should not be too close to the release nor too far away from it. Ideally, anything from one week to a maximum three weeks.
Launch the product, have the celebration, and then roll right into the postmortem, within one to three weeks rather than waiting for a convenient break in the action (which never comes, anyhow).
How to ensure Post Mortem as a process?
Effective use of postmortems can only happen when all stakeholders understand the benefits and management is supportive of this exercise.
In essence, an atmosphere needs to be built that promotes post mortems and all team members embrace it for betterment.
Plan for Postmortems - Your project plan should explicitly set aside time and space for the postmortem. To get the most value out of this activity, you need to take it seriously; people need to have time to think without being thrown immediately into the next project. The postmortem should be a scheduled activity, with time for a meeting of the team to discuss the lessons learned and time for someone (or some group) to write the postmortem report. People need to distance from the day-to-day workspace and see more clearly what they spend their regular workday doing.
How to conduct a Post Mortem (project post mortem, i.e.)?
Follow a two step process for conducting these reviews:
1. First, prepare and circulate a whole bunch of specific questions about the project and give team members time to think about them and prepare their responses individually.
Important: Involve all contributors.
2. Next, hold a meeting and discuss the team's responses to the questions. The result of this discussion is often a list of "Lessons Learned."
The benefit of the first step is that it allows the quieter, more analytical people to develop their responses to the questions without being interrupted by the more outgoing, vocal types who might otherwise dominate in the face-to-face meeting. Also, it allows everyone the time to create more thoughtful responses.
So what would be on the list of questions?
General Questions
1. Are you proud of our finished deliverables (project work products)? If yes, what's so good about them? If no, what's wrong with them?
2. What was the single most frustrating part of our project?
3. How would you do things differently next time to avoid this frustration?
4. What was the most gratifying or professionally satisfying part of the project?
5. Which of our methods or processes worked particularly well?
6. Which of our methods or processes were difficult or frustrating to use?
7. If you could wave a magic wand and change anything about the project, what would you change?
8. Did our stakeholders, senior managers, customers, and sponsor(s) participate effectively? If not, how could we improve their participation?
SPECIFIC QUESTIONS
Documentation Phase
1. Did our analysis identify all the project deliverables that we eventually had to build? If not, what did we miss and how can we be sure our future analyses don't miss such items?
2. Did our analysis identify unnecessary deliverables? If so, how can we be sure our future analyses don't make this mistake?
3. Did those who reviewed the SRS, provide timely and meaningful input? If not, how could we have improved their involvement and the quality of their contributions?
4. Did we have the right people assigned to all project roles? (Consider subject matter expertise, technical contributions, management, review and approval, and other key roles) If no, how can we make sure that we get the right people next time?
5. List team members or stakeholders who were missing from the kickoff meeting or who were not involved early enough in our project. How can we avoid these oversights in the future?
Development Phase
1. How accurate were our original estimates? What did we over or under estimate?
2. How could we have improved our estimate so that it was more accurate?
3. Were all team/stakeholder roles and responsibilities clearly delineated and communicated? If not, how could we have improved these?
4. Were the deliverables specifications, milestones, and specific schedule elements/dates clearly communicated? If not, how could we improve this?
5. Did the test facilities, equipment, materials, and support people help to make the test an accurate representation of how the deliverables will be used in the "real world?" If not, how could we have improved on these items?
What to extract from a Post Mortem exercise?
Here are a few suggestions to make PMA exercise fruitful:
1. Discuss what went wrong.
2. Discuss what went right
3. Document the postmortem in writing. A series of postmortems can ultimately evolve into a valuable record of your hard-earned wisdom.
4. Assess mid-project changes. What unanticipated changes occurred throughout the project? How did you respond to them? Did you incorporate some great mid-project additions, or was excessive feature creep a problem?
5. Draw meaningful conclusions. What conclusions can you draw from your project history that will help you improve in the future? What should you start doing, keep doing, or stop doing? Describe new practices you should try for your next project. This is perhaps the most important part of the postmortem, so be prepared to spend more time here than in any other section.
6. Take action. It would be a great waste of time to create a beautiful project postmortem, archive it, and forget about it. The final step is to develop an action plan that can be applied to your next project. Review your project history, reflect on the lessons you've learned, and specify new guidelines to follow in the future. I recommend creating a checklist for your next project. If you already have a checklist, then update it with new refinements.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
New Robotic Designs - Cars
The new Honda Accord, The new Toyata Camry and the new Hyundai Sonata (Embraer) have something in common. If you compare them to their original avtaars which were more flashy, curvy, round and contemporary, the new designs are more futuristic and robotic.
The sophisticated curves have given way to slightly more straighter designs but the tangents are upward looking, pointing upwards.......look at the head & tail lights for example.
Each component sounds more specific.....to the purpose. Each component strung together to do its job and leave the rest to other components. Neatly put together.
It takes a while to get a liking for these designs. In the first look, you are not sure if the re-design is for the better or worse. But you get a little more more comfortable , and then you see the futuristic, robotic look in them. And its common all across. I think this trend is going to get on more cars, including smaller sedans.
The sophisticated curves have given way to slightly more straighter designs but the tangents are upward looking, pointing upwards.......look at the head & tail lights for example.
Each component sounds more specific.....to the purpose. Each component strung together to do its job and leave the rest to other components. Neatly put together.
It takes a while to get a liking for these designs. In the first look, you are not sure if the re-design is for the better or worse. But you get a little more more comfortable , and then you see the futuristic, robotic look in them. And its common all across. I think this trend is going to get on more cars, including smaller sedans.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Is Orkut for Social Networking?
I was sitting with a pal a few days back and he mentioned something that suddenly struck me as a surprise but is a stark reality.
He asked me if I made any new friends through Orkut so far? The answer was a No! Since then I have been asking the same question to almost everyone I have been meeting.
Almost everyone has said NO. And for the exceptional Yes, the answer is that the level of interaction with the new friend is as good as zero.
People are connecting with their current & past colleagues, friends, family, relatives. Whatever communities they join are for the sake of joining. Its not actually a social network where your friends list grows through contacts of others. You end up contacting your own contacts. More of re-connecting with lost friends!
So is social networking a right classification for Orkut? I doubt.
He asked me if I made any new friends through Orkut so far? The answer was a No! Since then I have been asking the same question to almost everyone I have been meeting.
Almost everyone has said NO. And for the exceptional Yes, the answer is that the level of interaction with the new friend is as good as zero.
People are connecting with their current & past colleagues, friends, family, relatives. Whatever communities they join are for the sake of joining. Its not actually a social network where your friends list grows through contacts of others. You end up contacting your own contacts. More of re-connecting with lost friends!
So is social networking a right classification for Orkut? I doubt.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Hamara Bajaj
Rumour goes that Rahul Bajaj once publically stated in late 1970s......."We don't require a Marketing Department. We have a packing department instead." And it was not that there weren't options in the market..... existed in the form of Vespa and Lambretta - both Italian products.
Bajaj Scooters were in very huge demand. You had to book and wait for months or even a year plus. Or buy it on premium - which was known as buying it in black. Or one option was to pay in US Dollars. Imagine, arranging for Dollars from an NRI relative to buy a Chetak! But lot of people did take that option. Bajaj was that big a hit and production was limited.
Well, Rahul Bajaj was sharp and quick to realize the changing trends. And I'm sure he put in place a very strong Marketing Department alongwith his Packing one........ which has produced some of the best ad campaigns.....perhaps the best in the category. Look at one of the old ads of 1980s. It doesn't dwell on product features per say, but the associates the brand with the nation......people from all walks of life......Bajaj is part of their lives and celebrations......Buland Bharat Ki Buland Tasveer, Hamara Bajaj. A very powerful statement indeed. Hamara Bajaj!
And Bajaj has changed with changing times. Look at this commercial which communicates the changing picture - Badal Rahen Hain Hum Yahaan - Naye Bharat Ki Nayee Tasveer - Hamara Bajaj. Again the essential theme is the same, connecting with people and their lives. But this time the people are more young, the machines they ride are different - Bikes plus New Age Scooters. Yet, the Indian value system is well respected:
Bajaj has come a long way. It was intelligent enough to realize that it is motorcycles where future lies. And look at the amount of sea-change they brought. From a 100% scooter manufacturer to a 100% bike manufacturer. It is surprising to know that Bajaj does not produce scooters any more. Though most of its products were a great success - Bajaj Cub, Bajaj Super, Bajaj Chetak, Bravo, Chetak FE, etc.
Look at the latest commercial that went live a few days back. The theme song is the same but with so much more energy and metal. And its very inspiring...... Aage Nikal Rahe Hain Hum - Khud Se Hi Aage Har Kadam - Naye Bharat Ki Nayee Raftaar - Hamara Bajaj (this is with reference to other bike manufacturers particularly Honda). The visual matches the audio like none other that I have seen ever.....demonstrates innovation and continuous improvement.
Not to forget the FANTASTIC commercial for Avenger: Feel Like God! And there was another cute one for Bravo - Can I drop you Nikki? Odd that the company that did not believe in Marketing has given us some of the best commercials ever created. And what a brand appeal till date. If you don't believe me, walk into any Bajaj showroom on a Sunday. You will see bikes sold like hot cakes!
Bajaj Scooters were in very huge demand. You had to book and wait for months or even a year plus. Or buy it on premium - which was known as buying it in black. Or one option was to pay in US Dollars. Imagine, arranging for Dollars from an NRI relative to buy a Chetak! But lot of people did take that option. Bajaj was that big a hit and production was limited.
Well, Rahul Bajaj was sharp and quick to realize the changing trends. And I'm sure he put in place a very strong Marketing Department alongwith his Packing one........ which has produced some of the best ad campaigns.....perhaps the best in the category. Look at one of the old ads of 1980s. It doesn't dwell on product features per say, but the associates the brand with the nation......people from all walks of life......Bajaj is part of their lives and celebrations......Buland Bharat Ki Buland Tasveer, Hamara Bajaj. A very powerful statement indeed. Hamara Bajaj!
And Bajaj has changed with changing times. Look at this commercial which communicates the changing picture - Badal Rahen Hain Hum Yahaan - Naye Bharat Ki Nayee Tasveer - Hamara Bajaj. Again the essential theme is the same, connecting with people and their lives. But this time the people are more young, the machines they ride are different - Bikes plus New Age Scooters. Yet, the Indian value system is well respected:
Bajaj has come a long way. It was intelligent enough to realize that it is motorcycles where future lies. And look at the amount of sea-change they brought. From a 100% scooter manufacturer to a 100% bike manufacturer. It is surprising to know that Bajaj does not produce scooters any more. Though most of its products were a great success - Bajaj Cub, Bajaj Super, Bajaj Chetak, Bravo, Chetak FE, etc.
Look at the latest commercial that went live a few days back. The theme song is the same but with so much more energy and metal. And its very inspiring...... Aage Nikal Rahe Hain Hum - Khud Se Hi Aage Har Kadam - Naye Bharat Ki Nayee Raftaar - Hamara Bajaj (this is with reference to other bike manufacturers particularly Honda). The visual matches the audio like none other that I have seen ever.....demonstrates innovation and continuous improvement.
Not to forget the FANTASTIC commercial for Avenger: Feel Like God! And there was another cute one for Bravo - Can I drop you Nikki? Odd that the company that did not believe in Marketing has given us some of the best commercials ever created. And what a brand appeal till date. If you don't believe me, walk into any Bajaj showroom on a Sunday. You will see bikes sold like hot cakes!
Saturday, July 7, 2007
What Gmail did to Email
I have completely shifted from asking people their email ids to asking 'are you on Gmail?' And I think its happening with a lot of people around me.
Look at what Gmail has done to Email. Suddenly almost everybody who uses Email has a Gmail account. Yahoo & Hotmail & Rediffmail, Sify & Indiatimes have been around for years and years. It is my observation that:
1. People generally had multiple email accounts. 2 - 3 usually
2. People more often than not, used primarily only one
3. And as time progressed, they stuck to this email id for more & more stuff
4. This was either a Yahoo or Hotmail or Rediffmail or Sify or sometimes Indiatimes as well, based on preference of user
5. Most important reason for user to stick to this id was - it became popular and known. Like a phone number. One doesn't change phone number so often. Its a point to reach you. And its been circulated to all people and organizations that matter to you.
And suddenly came Gmail. Ofcourse, the tag of Google came alongwith it.
So when people were so resistant to change and at the same time were fairly happy with free services of Yahoo, Hotmail, Sify, Rediff, Indiatimes, etc........suddenly decided to shift.
And I also remember that people had to struggle with Gmail. It was based on a system totally unknown to them. People were aghast to learn you just cannot create folders on Gmail. Okay if you can search, but still.......people who were used to it found it very weird to adapt.
Then there was the funda of attaching all threads to a subject line not an absolute Reverse Chronological Order!
Once a User Experience Designer even called me up (this was a distress call).....she wanted to write a mail on a newly opened Gmail account but could not figure out the Compose link.
Then there were other smaller issues such as, you can't make out the attachment size until you open up the email, etc.
YET, NONE OF THIS MATTERED. AND GMAIL IS A BIG, BIG HIT. Inspite of a Very Late Mover! And inspite not resorting to advertising. Whereas we can see ads of Yahoo Mail, Rediffmail & Zapak Mail all around on TV, hoardings and what not.
So why did this happen? I don't know for sure but maybe the following things clicked:
1. Gmail grew through networking. You couldn't just land on Gmail Homepage & sign up (until now). You had to be invited by a friend. It started by 2 invites per user then 5 then 50. By creating scarcity, it created demand. And we know referrals work.
People invited each other......told them its 'cool....' I sent an invite to myself so that I could refer it to another 5 friends. And thats how it grew.
2. Gmail offered Search. No one else did. You had to hunt page by page, mail by mail. Not on Gmail though! And now everyone has a search within your mails.....thanks to Gmail. But none of them are as fast.
3. Gmail offered BIG storage space. And they put a formula that it will keep growing perpetually. You could stare at the figures moving every second. Gave a sense of growth!
However, I would like to add here - almost everyone followed suit in giving bigger space. But for some reason no one else could carry it off like Gmail.
4. Gmail was from Google. And THAT made the single largest difference. Because Google has a snob value. Its cool to be with Google. Coz they are big, growing, full of new, innovative ideas, young, think different. Subconsciously, its cool to be associated with Google!
After all, who thought of beginning an error message with "Oops!"
(You can compare on similar lines - What GTalk did to Yahoo Messenger)
Look at what Gmail has done to Email. Suddenly almost everybody who uses Email has a Gmail account. Yahoo & Hotmail & Rediffmail, Sify & Indiatimes have been around for years and years. It is my observation that:
1. People generally had multiple email accounts. 2 - 3 usually
2. People more often than not, used primarily only one
3. And as time progressed, they stuck to this email id for more & more stuff
4. This was either a Yahoo or Hotmail or Rediffmail or Sify or sometimes Indiatimes as well, based on preference of user
5. Most important reason for user to stick to this id was - it became popular and known. Like a phone number. One doesn't change phone number so often. Its a point to reach you. And its been circulated to all people and organizations that matter to you.
And suddenly came Gmail. Ofcourse, the tag of Google came alongwith it.
So when people were so resistant to change and at the same time were fairly happy with free services of Yahoo, Hotmail, Sify, Rediff, Indiatimes, etc........suddenly decided to shift.
And I also remember that people had to struggle with Gmail. It was based on a system totally unknown to them. People were aghast to learn you just cannot create folders on Gmail. Okay if you can search, but still.......people who were used to it found it very weird to adapt.
Then there was the funda of attaching all threads to a subject line not an absolute Reverse Chronological Order!
Once a User Experience Designer even called me up (this was a distress call).....she wanted to write a mail on a newly opened Gmail account but could not figure out the Compose link.
Then there were other smaller issues such as, you can't make out the attachment size until you open up the email, etc.
YET, NONE OF THIS MATTERED. AND GMAIL IS A BIG, BIG HIT. Inspite of a Very Late Mover! And inspite not resorting to advertising. Whereas we can see ads of Yahoo Mail, Rediffmail & Zapak Mail all around on TV, hoardings and what not.
So why did this happen? I don't know for sure but maybe the following things clicked:
1. Gmail grew through networking. You couldn't just land on Gmail Homepage & sign up (until now). You had to be invited by a friend. It started by 2 invites per user then 5 then 50. By creating scarcity, it created demand. And we know referrals work.
People invited each other......told them its 'cool....' I sent an invite to myself so that I could refer it to another 5 friends. And thats how it grew.
2. Gmail offered Search. No one else did. You had to hunt page by page, mail by mail. Not on Gmail though! And now everyone has a search within your mails.....thanks to Gmail. But none of them are as fast.
3. Gmail offered BIG storage space. And they put a formula that it will keep growing perpetually. You could stare at the figures moving every second. Gave a sense of growth!
However, I would like to add here - almost everyone followed suit in giving bigger space. But for some reason no one else could carry it off like Gmail.
4. Gmail was from Google. And THAT made the single largest difference. Because Google has a snob value. Its cool to be with Google. Coz they are big, growing, full of new, innovative ideas, young, think different. Subconsciously, its cool to be associated with Google!
After all, who thought of beginning an error message with "Oops!"
(You can compare on similar lines - What GTalk did to Yahoo Messenger)
Wednesday, July 4, 2007
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